Himalayan Run-Off River Power Generation Modelling for Power Security in Evolving Weather Conditions

Extreme black-swan occurrences like earthquakes, glacial lake outbursts, flash floods, landslides, etc. are important concerns in Himalayan countries Nepal, which highly susceptible, geologically active, and exquisitely fragile. Nepal generates 97 percent of its electricity from hydropower, where 56.08 it is coming seasonal run-off-river (RoR) hydro plants. Landslides mudflows common the monsoon, low discharge winter season. These RoR plants must be able to withstand high-impact events earthquakes lengthy droughts order for Nepalese grid remain secure. This study gives a presentation overview previously occured natural hazards related hydropower In particular, 2014 Sunkoshi landslide 2021 Melamchi flood evaluated as extreme their impacts on plant has been studied. addition, an in-depth investigation ROR carried out. Moreover, water rainfall peaks time series data using ARIMA-based model. paper shows feasibility predicting energy produced by run-off river plant. The purpose forecast hence power generation with aim facilitate operators availability declaration will again help overall planning. results discussed together performance metrics, indicates that implemented technique promising.These predictions can further used planning estimating more complex level.